OK, the new Quinnipiac poll comes out and shows Carl Paladino only six points behind Andrew Cuomo in the race for Governor of New York. Here are my Top 10 reasons this surge doesn’t scare me.
10. In the poll, Democrat likely voters go 87% for Cuomo; Republicans 83% for Paladino. This is an overwhelmingly Democratic state with a GOP party so disorganized they can’t even get its endorsed candidate the nomination. We have more folks and we’re better organized.
9. The poll also states that only 18% of likely voters identify with the Tea Party–a phrase that the D’s will utter so often voters will start to think Tea Party is part of Carl’s name.
8. In the poll, only 7% of likely voters say they are undecided. Are all of them going to move to Crazy Carl?
7. Cuomo has the endorsement (and the built in door-knocker and phone banker brigade) of the Working Families party–who will be highly motivated to get the 50,000 votes needed to retain their ballot slot.
6. No Republican of recent vintage has won statewide office without the endorsement of the Conservative Party. The C’s are stuck with Rick Lazio as their standard-bearer. The C’s will be every bit as determined as the WF’s to get 50,000 votes to save their ballot slot. In NY, unlike nationally, moderate Republicans still exist–voting for Lazio will be their way to protest the Tea Party hijacking of the R’s.
5. Democrats nationally are fearful of the “enthusiasm gap” between their activists and the emboldened Tea Partiers. In NY, a gubernatorial candidate shouldn’t re-transmit racist internet cartoons of the Obamas or suggest welfare recipients be imprisoned and taught hygiene. Can’t see Paladino getting any votes at all in large swaths of the state. Can’t see a problem getting folks excited to vote against him either.
4. In the poll, Cuomo has a 65% approval rating with likely voters for his current tenure as Attorney General and a general approval rating of 51%. Only 36% approve of Paladino and 31 % don’t know enough about him to form an opinion. The Cuomo juggernaut will be able to help a good portion of the undecided understand that he is a racist whackjob.
3. Many Republicans are going to sit on their hands during this election-For example, George Pataki won three elections for governor and still has a great deal of cachet with R’s and loyalists scattered throughout both the government bureaucracy and business. Crazy Carl called him a “degenerate idiot.” Pataki may say he is standing behind the Republican candidate, but that support will be so far behind Carl it will be non-existent.
2. In the poll, the gender gap is alive and well and still favoring the Democrats. Women favor Cuomo by 20 percentage points and men favor Paladino by just 3 points. In the words of zydeco star C. J. Chenier:
“Let us put man and woman together/ See which one is smarter/
Some say men, but I say no/ Women got the men like a puppet show./
It ain’t me, it’s the people that say/ The men are leading the women astray/ But I say, it’s the women today/ They’re smarter than the men in every way.”
1. OK, say I’m totally wrong. NY’ers are fed up and toss all the incumbents and career politicians out and Crazy Carl sneaks into office. I’m still not scared. Dysfunctional Albany finally starts working for the liberals. If a bright guy like Eliot Spitzer couldn’t figure out three men in a room, what chance does political newcomer Crazy Carl really have of making an impact on Albany? If he does win, say hello to the new Boss!