Obama’s Electoral College Math

Figures on percentage support of each candidate by state taken from FiveThirtyEight blog.

Solid Obama (90%+ support) 19 states (incl. DC) 237 Electoral College votes
CA, CT, DC, DE, HI, IL, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, NJ, NM, NY, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA

Likely Obama (between 75% and 90% support) 2 states 16 Electoral College votes
NV (76%), WI (82%)

Leaning Obama (Less than 75% support) 5 states 50 Electoral College votes
Colorado (52%), IA (67%), NH, (67%), OH (74%), VA (53%)

All Obama Support: 25 states and D.C. 303 Electoral College votes
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Keep Calm and Read FiveThirtyEight

Four years ago, amidst all the hope and change hoopla, the selection of Sarah Palin for the vice presidential slot on the GOP ticket created some media coverage, a jolt of enthusiasm (and some nasty racist bloviating at rallies) and a small blip upward in the polls for John McCain. The folks on the blue side of the ledger started to panic. I counseled them at the time that “No-Drama Obama” was not in any way imperiled and the election was in the bag. This year, the election versus Romney will likely be closer and consequently my Democratic friends are fretting again.

“Hey, guys: (in the non-gender California sense of the word) things are looking good, don’t get your knickers in a twist!” Here’s a couple of reasons why:
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List-o-mania: Syracuse Politician Edition

The English novel (and American movie) High Fidelity’s array of top five lists perfectly captured the obsessive nature of modern fanboys: “What really matters is what you like, not what you are like.” I may or may not be a fanboy of many different things, but I definitely love me some lists! And since I’m also a political geek, the list I stumbled across today was guaranteed to pique my interest.

As part of a Post-Standard article looking at the state and national leadership roles of Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner (and speculating about future possible offices for which she may run), the paper ran a sidebar piece where the Mayor made a list of the top 10 most influential and progressive leaders in government. She made her list alphabetical–no ranking other politicians (cause they have pretty thin skins.) Continue reading

Me For Lee!

I made it into the newspaper this morning–if anonymously. In the annual story on the silly write-in ballots during the November elections, it was discovered that: “The late Lee Alexander, a former Syracuse mayor who spent time in prison for corruption, received a vote for county executive.”

That was my ballot. I voted the straight crime ticket on the three big Onondaga County races that were uncontested–also voting for Bernie Madoff for County comptroller and Sal Piemonte (the local lawyer frequently in his own legal trouble) for District Attorney.

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This Is What They Mean By “Off Year Election”

Local elections result in politicians gaining offices that have an immediate impact on our daily lives: streets paved and plowed, criminals arrested, house fires put out, school children educated–or not, taxes levied for all these things . . . and much more. Yet, people don’t really pay attention to any of these things, preferring to vote in major elections like the Presidential race coming up next year. While national elections are no doubt important, especially in these times of war and economic collapse, local elections shouldn’t be seen as chopped liver.

That being said, the most recent city of Syracuse elections produced both winners and losers:

Winners:
1) Helen Hudson. The first-time candidate ran away with the At Large council race (pick two) for Syracuse Common Council. She got more votes than anyone and becomes the second African-American to win a city-wide seat on the Council (Van Robinson has won both an At Large seat and the Council President seat.) Helen won because of her altruistic and courageous work for Mothers Against Gun Violence, a group that she created and has kept going for the past several years. Class wins out, especially amongst politicians singularly lacking any class at all.

2) Howie Hawkins. Yeah, yeah. He’s run 20 times. He’s never won. He lost again. But his campaign for the 4th District council was different. Howie ran an amazingly close race (losing by less than 100 votes) by focusing more effort on reaching out to voters than on creating the perfect Green Party issue platform (usually printed in nine-point font, with soy-based ink, on 90% post-consumer waste recycled paper, both sides of the paper: with nary an -ism not exposed and opposed.) The “Green Hawks” had many volunteers, ran an impressive door-to-door canvass and utilized a wide array of impressive social media. One of these days . . .

3) Marty Masterpole. He got slimed in a messy mud-slinging campaign financed by the state Republican committee. He was caught up in the controversy over Stephanie Miner’s donations to local candidates through her political action committee. He didn’t do much actual campaigning–mainly some mailers and a couple of public appearances. And he still won handily in the city auditor race over his Republican challenger.

Losers:

1) Stephanie Miner. Yeah, her chosen candidates all won, (well, except for her husband’s daughter-in-law running in the suburbs) but the disastrous decision to funnel money to their campaigns through her PAC’s contributions to the state Democratic committee did nothing but create a campaign issue the increasingly desperate Republicans will use against her in two years. She’s hoping that the four new members of the Council (if Jake Barrett holds on to his slim lead in the 1st District) will make the Council an easier group to steamroller, umm . . . work with, over the next 2 years.

2) Steve Kimatian. Kimatian can’t beat Miner at the polls as a mayoral candidate. Kimatian, city GOP chair, can’t get any Republicans to win, or (in several cases) even agree to run, any city Council races. Kimatian can’t beat Masterpole for city auditor despite convincing the state GOP to finance an ugly mud-slinging mail campaign. Ah, we’ve got Steve’s next campaign slogan: Kimatian Can’t!

3) The city of Syracuse. Did you see the GOP wipe-out of the D’s in the County Legislature? Did you read about how the GOP legislators are already taunting County Executive Mahoney–saying she will be all but irrelevant in budget matters? Thank God the city has about nine years to try to figure out a way to negotiate the next city/county sales tax agreement.

4. Parents of African-American and Latino School Children 74% of the students in the Syracuse school district are persons of color. Only one of the seven commissioners on the school board is a person of color. The four winners of seats on the Syracuse school board are all white, east-side liberals. Yeah, I don’t see much change over the next few years. Say Yes To (white east-side liberal) Education.

Mike Huckabee on Natalie Portman’s Pregnancy–Anti-Semitic?

Once and future (?) Presidential candidate Mike Huckabee made the following comments on single motherhood, one quite recently:

“People see a Natalie Portman who boasts, ‘We’re not married but we’re having these children and they’re doing just fine. … I think it gives a distorted image. It’s unfortunate that we glorify and glamorize the idea of out-of-wedlock children.”
–Re: Natalie Portman out-of-wedlock pregnancy 2011

“The way the media went after the daughter is the most shameful thing I’ve ever seen in my life. If anything, it just caused [evangelicals] to run to her. Everyone understands that the basis of being a Christian is that everyone has fallen short of God’s ideal. Everyone understands that. We do understand is that when there’s a problem or failures, the family sticks together. We saw a mother who gave her unconditional love to her daughter. That embodies what Christianity means. We all mess up, the issue is how we respond to it.”
–Re: Bristol Palin out-of-wedlock pregnancy 2008

The difference? Everyone is pointing at the fact that Portman is part of the Hollywood set, a favorite target for conservative Republicans. That message seems to be obvious, both to his followers and opponents. The message I hear, and his followers probably hear (like a silent dog whistle) is the fact that Palin is an evangelical Christian and Portman is Jewish. Why no outcry about the anti-semitism implicit in the juxtaposition of the two statements?

As The Civilian Review Board Turns . . .

And you thought soap operas were dead! Mayor Stephanie Miner fired Felicia Davis, the head of the Civilian Review Board, on Friday. The C.R.B. was the only independent monitoring agency looking at complaints about police brutality. The fallout from this is going to be ugly.

Before the soap opera begins, one thing should be kept in perspective: The Civilian Review Board under Ms. Davis was a joke. The Board did nothing but complain that the Mayors and Councils for the past 17 years have done nothing to make their job easier. They held no hearings, they did no outreach in the community with either residents or community groups and they did no work in the press. They did nothing. Ms. Davis treated her job as a sinecure, a no-show job like some mobbed-up goon. Board members came and went, frustrated. The people remaining behind are bitter, unpleasant folks–unable to work with anyone in the community. They have found their little fiefdom and refuse to look at the reality of its failure.

The last straw, after 17 years of purposeful incompetence, was Ms. Davis’ refusal to respond to a subpoena about a finding the Board made about a complaint of abuse. The Board, apparently based solely on the complainant’s statement, issued a finding that the complaint was substantiated. One can guess why Ms. Davis made no appearance–either at the trial or after a subsequent request by the judge for questioning–the complaint was laughable on its face and was tossed out of court. The judge believes the case only went to court because of the imprimatur of the CRB. The judge is considering fines and reprimands to the city for its role. The city was finally forced to act.

But now the circus is coming to town. Here are the problems I foresee:

1) Does the Mayor have the right to fire the head of the C.R.B.?
Yes, this case features a liberal democrat Mayor searching for an effective outside monitor of complaints about police brutality and an incompetent, do-nothing head of the C.R.B. But what if the Mayor was a right-wing asshole who believed that a few cracked heads are the price you pay for safety and anyone opposing him is a bleeding heart apologist for the criminal element? What if the head of the C.R.B. had been a crusading go-getter? The Mayor probably shouldn’t have the power to fire the head of the C.R.B. But what do we do when it’s obvious, as in this case, that a change has to be made?

2) The Council will politicize this problem in its struggle to stay relevant
It comes as a shock to many when they discover that power in the city government is stacked in the Common Council’s favor–a result of the widespread corruption under the “strong mayor” set-up in place under Lee Alexander. That shock is largely a result of the inability of the Council to get its shit together. The Democrats have long controlled the Council and will as long as current demographics continue (or until the city government is eaten whole by Onondaga County.) Politics on the Council has nothing to do with party label, ideology or even rational thought. It’s all petty, personal crap. It’s like high school student council writ large. The problem is the Council will grandstand on this issue and demand its right to be in control–but will be unable to do anything about the problem. Hell, the council can’t even muster more than 3 votes for anyone to replace departed Councilor Bill Ryan.

3) The lefties will rally in support of Ms. Davis.
The left in Syracuse, of which I count myself a member, has a strong tendency to let their ideology and extraneous viewpoints about the great issues of the day screw up their ability to be pragmatic and thoughtful when dealing with prosaic local issues. The C.R.B. is irredeemably broken, the people running this agency for the past 17 years have done nothing to help the situation, making things worse by abdicating any responsibility for corrective action. I can envisage the same people that fought so hard to create the CRB, but have since been so terribly silent in the face of its impotence, to jump up and defend Ms. Davis and her era of incompetence.

4) The race card
In a town where African-Americans, who make up 25% of the city’s population yet have so few positions of decision-making power in city government, it is unfortunate when an African-American loses a position of authority. The flip side of this problem is the tendency to shield incompetent African-American office holders from being fired. Yes, there are incompetent white officeholders that should be gotten rid of as well. But the focus should be on firing the incompetents–of all races. Ms. Davis’ husband ran for Mayor in the most recent election and, when asked about the incompetence of the C.R.B., responded with a stunning mix of personal invective about Mayor Miner’s husband and racial conspiracy theory. I fear more of this is to come.

Wow!

Michael Caputo, top campaign aide to Carl Paladino, made the following comment during a panel discussion about the 2010 gubernatorial race. He was remarking on Paladino’s insistence on making unsubstantiated claims about Andrew Cuomo having extramarital affairs during his marriage to Kerry Kennedy, despite the strong objections of his advisors:

“I do believe Carl fell in love with the kerplunk of the turd in the punchbowl”

Liberté, Partialité, Perplexité (The Accelerated Culture)

The national motto of France, coined during the French Revolution, is “liberté, égalité, fraternité” (liberty, equality and brotherhood.) My post’s title is a suggestion for the state of modern American politics: liberty, partisanship, bewilderment.

The conventional wisdom of current American politics is that the increasingly partisan parties on both sides have left a sizable number of disgusted moderates in the middle, swinging wildly from side-to-side in a desperate attempt to find whatever it is they are looking for. Pundits point to three “wave” elections since 1994 (including the last two)–the kind of election that throws control of one or more of the three branches of government to the erstwhile party in opposition. This argument presupposes that “partisanship” is bad and “moderation” is good.

Partisanship used to be a way for voters to make sense of the game, candidates for office were products of the parties and the parties stood for concrete ideas. Partisanship used to represent the clear ideological underpinnings of our modern political parties: 1) Republicans espoused conservative principles, arguing against excessive regulation of business interests, arguing for reductions in personal and corporate taxes and for a strong national defense. Conservatives were generally suspicious of the use of government power to achieve social goals. 2) Democrats espoused the liberal belief in promoting civil rights at home and human rights abroad. Liberals believed in using the power of the government to provide for the common welfare, tempering the eternal strains of liberty versus equality with a judicious concern for brotherhood, our common needs and destinies.

In our era this is no longer the case. Parties and candidates have become divorced from ideas and philosophy. The ideas have become sound bites and the real action in politics is the behind-the-scenes money-grubbing. Neither party is immune to this culture of influence-peddling, yet ordinary citizens seem to be excluded from this process.

Douglas Coupland subtitled his 1991 novel Generation X “Tales For An Accelerated Culture.” He popularized the term Gen X, but the notion of an accelerated culture has lived on into the age of the Millennial: we’re faced with a rapidly changing society. Modern culture has become more complex, more fragmented and difficult to process for many people.

The accelerated culture has created an environment where ideas, and even the political parties themselves, are largely props used by candidates promoting themselves with their own media operations and their own fundraising. Candidates no longer need to hew to the wishes of the party or their ostensible philosophy. When it suits their needs, candidates blur the lines between partisanship and the once basic bedrock philosophies of our two party system. The electoral system now makes it increasingly difficult for the political party apparatus to even select their own candidates. A newcomer with ready cash and hip media buys often can blow away even established, strong candidates endorsed by their party (e.g. Christine O’Donnell v. Mike Castle in the 2010 Republican primary race for U.S. Senate in Delaware.)

Our accelerated culture also has resulted in accelerated politics, elections come so frequently compared to other nations, that it seems hard to draw any conclusions from them. The prognosticator’s only safe bet is, when times are flush, we hold pat and let things ride. In times of insecurity, we fold and look to a new hand.

Ironically for me, the best description of the need for “old school” partisanship was summed up in the very first issue of the conservative magazine National Review in 1955. Editor and founder William F. Buckley, Jr. wrote the conservative magazine’s mission statement: “Our political economy and our high-energy industry run on large, general principles, on ideas — not by day-to-day guess work, expedients and improvisations. Ideas have to go into exchange to become or remain operative.”

Buckley’s mission statement is just as true today as when he wrote it in 1955. Unfortunately, the times have changed. The battle of big ideas has been abandoned, by both sides, and has been replaced by the guess work and expediency he derided. There is no mainstream medium of exchange to develop and test these philosophies. How quaint the notion that establishing a serious print journal of opinion can contribute to (and even change) the national discussion of our politics and our worldview. It was possible in the 1950′s, as Buckley and his comrades helped nurture the modern conservative movement, cresting with the election of Ronald Reagan in 1980 and his two terms in office.

Buckley’s quaint notion of the importance of mediums of exchange is impossible to even suggest now. There are currently more mediums of exchange than there are people with ideas. The problem of politics in the accelerated culture is the static to noise ratio. How do you cut through the babble to find ideas you can agree with, work for or even just tolerate? Politicians understand the process and have abandoned philosophy for framing, branding and SEO optimization. Politics and partisan affiliation is not a matter of who or what you believe in, it’s how much bullshit marketing you can stomach. I believe that this is the core of the dismay on the left with Barack Obama. The marketing of Barack as an agent of change was so skillfully done that the left looked at a moderate/corporate supported Democrat as the Great Left Hope. He never was a lefty, but we all wanted to believe so badly that we convinced ourselves that he was one of our own. (He had me at community organizer!)

The kind of retail politics that stems from the development of a clear philosophy can still occur in America–but increasingly only in the lower levels of politics–where money and media do not matter as much. And, as always, I believe that people operating outside the scope of electoral politics, skillfully applying the ju-jitsu pressure of community organizing can be successful in grabbing a measure of control over their lives. There you go–more static to noise. Almost 1,000 words to point out that I believe in citizen action more than I do the electoral process!